Browsing the archives for the Early Warning category.

Early Warning: Late at Night. 10 JUL 06

Culture, Early Warning, Energy, Music, Technology

Monday, July 10, 2006
Late at Night

It’s very late – 1.30 AM, and I am here futzing with my computer and electronic gizmos. The light above me is a compact flourescent – not very bright, but it doesn’t have to be – my laptop’s monitor is plenty bright, and as the rest of the room is cluttered with the detritus of years of accumulation – dead computers, broken monitors, keyboards that use a legacy bus that stopped running years ago – there isn’t much else to look at.

I make electronic music, and I give it away, for free. I make art and I give it away, for free. Why? Because it’s the right thing to do. I give you my words, my ideas, here – for free. Free as in speech, free as in beer.

I’m up late every night because I snore. I have always snored. As I have aged, it has gotten worse, and sometimes my wife can barely sleep because of it. I’ve tried a number of remedies, and none work. So, I stay up until 2 or 3 in the morning, so she can get 4 or five hours of good solid sleep. I crawl to bed and within half an hour I’m out, and usually, she is so deeply asleep, that my snoring doesn’t wake her. At least, that is what I hope – it’s what I tell myself.

In the meantime, I have time to work with my machines – type blog posts, type email, do some web design. On my little G4 iBook. It’s slow, by today’s standards, but it works and it’s cute. I bought it used, for very little money, and it’s very good on electricity – a battery charge can last 3 or even 4 hours, as long as I’m not doing something insane like rendering video clips.

What is interesting about my music system here is that it actually uses a fraction of the amount of electricity it used 20 years ago to do so much less.

In 1986, I got a credit card and maxxed it out and bought a pile of gear. I bought a Korg DSS1 sampler, a Yamaha TX81z synthesizer, an Atari 1040ST computer and monitor, MidiSoft Studio MIDI recording software, Minstrel compsing software, a dot matrix printer, a keyboard stand, a Yamaha SPX90 processor, a MIDIverb reverb unit, a Yamaha mixer, a crown power amp, a Yamaha MIDI merger, and a pair of TOA speakers and stands. Several months later, I bought another sampler, a Sequential Circuits Prophet 2002 and a Yamaha DX11. I had quite a rig.

All that gear sucked down huge amounts of electricity.

Now, my entire electronic music system consists of my laptop, a USB powered Oxygen8 keyboard, two Firewire drives, an Edirol UR80 MIDI USB recording system, Ableton Live software, Propellorheads Reason software, Audacity audio editing software, a Mackie Mixer, and a pair of Event PS8 speakers.

I also have a USB powered WACOM tablet for graphics, but it’s usually not hooked up.

All that gear I had back in ‘86 is now just a small part of a drop down menu in Reason.

I often wonder about that – all that electricity to make music – where did it go? I was more productive back then, but I had more time back then – I wasn’t living with a daughter… I was able to get more done then. I have more ideas now, but less time to do them. And now I have compeeting interests with video and imaging. It seems endless…

But now I have these late evenings under the cool glow of the CF lamp, music quietly oozing from the speakers as iTunes spews my CD collection back at me in random fashion.

Sometimes I think iTunes is psychic. At random it pulled “All the Things We’ve Made” by Orchestral Manoeuvres in the Dark up for my listening enjoyment.

The lyrics go:

To want this.
Of everything we’ve made.
The times it’s worked before.

Of all the things we’ve said.
Times that worked before today.

To want this.
Of everything we’ve made.
The times it’s worked before.

Of all the things we’ve said.
They’ve always worked before today.

Will that be the theme song of the transition?

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Early Warning: ER/EI 30 JUN 06

Culture, Early Warning, Environment, Music, Peak Oil, Policy, Science, Theory

Friday, June 30, 2006
ER/EI

Over the past several weeks I have been rather focussed on ideas regarding Energy Return On Energy Invested, aka EROEI. I prefer the math version, ER/EI, as it is more to the point – it’s a ratio created by a simple division – Take your energy return and divide it by the energy invested. ER divided by EI.

My posts have been sporadic lately as I have moved back across the country, and between the jetlag and exhaustion of re-fitting myself into a more domestic existence, I’ve been keeping a lower profile than usual.

In my thinking, I am wondering if the entire ER/EI question is itself something of a red herring, and that perhaps there needs to be a better understanding of how we use energy in total.

Example: Nuclear power. A limited analysis would say that nuclear power is an extremely energetic system, far in excess per pound of fuel than any other, as (X) tons of plutonium or uranium fuel = (P) watts of power, and that this ratio P/X is rather astounding, hence: Nuclear power is a good value from the understanding of that ratio.

However, as many are quick to point out, there’s a lot more to nuclear power than (X) tons of fuel making (P) watts of energy, as there is the mining and processing of uranium and plutonium – an extremely energetic process. Then there is the building of a nuclear power plant; again, an energetic process. Then there is the amount of energy needed to keep the plant itself running, and the amount of energy needed to remove the fuel and dispose of it, and then, eventually dismantle the radioactive bits of plant itself. This significantly pulls a lot of value out of the X side of the X/P equation…

Then, there is what I’ve been looking at, which significantly impacts that X value as well, and it is what I call “secondary energy costs”. What are these? In the case of Nuclear Power, there’s a bunch of them. Let’s look at a nuke plant in terms of: Construction, Fuel, Maintenance, Fuel Disposal, and Decomissioning. Each of these are fraught with secondary costs.

Construction
The concrete doesn’t appear from nowhere. It has to be mined. The mining equipment requires energy. There are people who need to do the mining, and they have homes and families and these also require energy. The school where the kids go requires energy. The clothing the miners wear is made in factories thatrun on energy, and are shipped to stores in trucks thatuse energy, and the truck itself is made from metals that are mined by other miners who also have energy requirements. And the mining machines are made in factories that use energy and by people who also have energy needs and schools and hospitals and TV sets. And then there is the construction itself – exotic metals, concrete, rebar, all of these things require energy in their mining, processing, and construction, and each step of the way is a factory using energy, and people using energy to go to work in and live near those factories.

Fuel
The development of nuclear fuels is a hazardous and toxic process, and one that is highly energetic. It takes thousands of tons of unranium, and thousands of centrifuges running flat out for days, and huge factories full of raw and waste materials to make, process, and form the fuel for a nuclear power plant. These factories have thousands of workers, and each of them has families and homes and towns and cars and TV sets all needing energy. Then there is the fuel needed to transport the fuel to the plant, and the energy needed to build the machines that transport and store the fuel.

Maintenance
The nuclear power plant has a crew of people – people who are engineers that keep the place running, grounds keepers keeping it nice looking, management personnel to keep things organised and running, and of course, Mr Burns who owns the plant must be kept in the lifestyle to which he has become eminently accustomed, a cleaning crew that takes out the trash and sweeps up, security personnel, and at least one guy named Homer to nap on the job as the core goes critical…

Still, all these people have homes – Homer has Marge, Lisa, Bart, and Maggie. Homer has to drive to work, and that takes energy. He sucks down a foaming frosty mug of Duff Beer at Moe’s Bar and the beer is transported to the bar, the bar requires energy to be built and maintained and power the neon lights, and Homer needs energy to get to Moe’s, wash his clothes, get his kids to school, perm Marge’s hair, etc.

This is all just part of Homer’s life as a worker at the nuke plant, and each plant has many many Homers, and they all need energy as do all of Homer’s friend’s and acquaintances.

Fuel Disposal
Once the fuel is used up, it must be removed and disposed of, requiring no small amount of energy and effort by Homers who are hired to do this sort of thing, and who also have families and homes and cars.

Decomissioning
When the plant is done, it needs to be dismantled and disposed of, and that is also a highly energetic effort…

This deeper analysis points to an odd conclusion – that ER/EI is a relevant equation, but in a mixed fuel economy, it is functionally impossible to tease out accurate numbers, and even when these numbers are teased out, they may be of limited use. Hence ER/EI may not be the important question.

No matter what we do, we use all the energy we’ve got.

(Just as I typed that line, “Corsair” by Boards of Canada came on the random choice of iTunes… man is that creepy…)

I am not certain, but I am fairly well convinced that true ER/EI is not as crazy as an NP-hard problem, but due to the total inter-relatedness and dynamics of society and energy, I am fairly well convinced that an accurate ER/EI analysis is not practically possible.

This is a BIG problem. Pimentel et al have staked their authority on such analysis, and while my extension of the ER/EI analysis only serves their points that alternative energy systems sch as ethanol have very low ER/EI (and my view punches it well below 1:1) it also points out the deep and impenetrable fog at the edges of such analysis, which can be used by all sorts of people to both credit and discredit any given technology.

While symbolic system can be developed to represent these analyses (Odum et al) even these symbolic systems cave under the complexity of dynamic energy allocations and sourcings.

Example: let’s say Homer drives a 1988 Chrysler Imperial to work, and it gets 15 mpg. Sure, his energy source for driving doesn’t require energy from the nuclear plant, and so that energy input is not counted against X, but the pumping of the gas is, as is the electricity the gas station uses. The food may be delivered to the Springfield Safeway by truck, but the Safeway runs on electricity, and Marge’s time spent shopping there uses some portion of that, and that does count against X, as the food she bys there mostly goes into Homer’s gut. And the Dunkin Donuts cooks its donuts using natgas, but the rest of it operates on electricity, and Homer’s donut consumption is some part of that, and that also counts against X. And then, one day, Homer replaces his gas guzzling Imperial with a plug in Hybrid, and now THAT cuts into X.

I don’t see how these dynamic fluctuations can be properly accounted for in any symbolic quantitative system, especially as these dynamic systems influence each other’s behaviour and output. So, Homer and a jillion other Homers get plug in hybrids. These hybrids are more efficient per watt per mile than a gas engine, so it uses fewer watts per mile travelled. Then one day, Homer figures out that he can lose some weight by riding a bike, but he’s too old and fat to get over some of the hills, so he opts for an electric assist bike, which is even MORE efficient with watts per mile travelled, but is slower.

One plug-in Prius equals dozens, if not hundreds, of electric bikes, so the energy embodied and used by one plug-in Prius is radically less than the energy and material that went into building a 1986 Imperial, and the electric bikes (or even trikes) are even more radically efficient, and embody and use even less than a Prius. However, if Homer sells his Imperial and buys a 1996 Geo Metro, he will double (if not triple) his fuel mileage and rather than demand more minerals from the earth to build a new Prius, he will be re-using the minerals someone else demanded from the earth ten years previously, and, in so doing, will be doubling the use of those materials, rather than have them go to the crusher and be recycled at some future date.

The Metro aside, all these electric bikes being pedalled by the Homers at the Burns Nuclear Power Plant and all the electric bikes pedalled by the friends of all the Homers, and all the electric bikes that get the service employees for all the Homers (Moe at the bar, Apu at the QuickieMart, etc.) are powered by the nuke plant, so it affects the ER/EI of the nuke plant, but certainly less than if they had plug-in Priuses.

You get the picture – calculating the ER/EI of a given energy technology is not an exact science, and that is why I wonder if it isn’t something of a red herring.

Basically, I think the question of ER/EI is critical in a general sense, but I do not believe ER/EI can ever get beyond a general or vague number, due to the dynamism and vagaries of its component structures and subsystems.

I may be an artist, and I may be insane, but I am enough of a scientist to appreciate being wrong. Please prove me so.

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Early Warning: A Post to a Post. 15 JUN 06

Culture, Early Warning, Peak Oil, Theory, Uncategorized

Thursday, June 15, 2006
A post to a post

I found an interesting blog that I am going to add to my list at right. The writer discusses an article by Smil, and how he misses the point of Peak Oil awareness. Smil does have a point in that there are a number of people who approach this issue like a doomsday cult, but many people approach many valuable ideas in a less than optimal fashion. I posted the following as my response. To see the original post, go here:

http://www.energybrowser.com/


Hi!

Interesting blog, and interesting article. The continuing arguments between cornucopians like Smil, and nihilists like Hanson is, in my not so humble opinion, a significant problem for both sides of the argument.

Smil et al suggest that there will be some kind of an “energy fairy” that will save the day. Hanson et al suggest that not only will there be no “energy fairy”, but we are actually looking at an imminent die-off of catastrophic proportions.

What I have been advocating is a more balanced, middle pillar approach, where neither side of the coin is ignored, but neither side is accepted in total. I do think that technology will provide significant innovations that will help pull the right hand side of the resource depletion curve out a bit. At the same time, I think it is disingenuous to think that we can continue this industrial process of massive over-consumption of resources at the demand of massive over-population indefinitely.

As a consequence, there is a distinctive ideological component to the peak-oil discussion, and these ideological conclusions have very real and far-reaching results in terms of energy policy development and socio-cultural evolution.

Example – a society that is completely dependent on a form of energy that is of a limited variety will die off if they don’t shift to a renewable energy system coupled with social and cultural mores, ethics, values, and preferences that encourages the preservation of the resource base. A society that goes skipping down the lane of cornucopia disregarding the warnings will, eventually, run into a wall and fail. A society that looks at the resources available and then develops systems that can be used for millennia, and sets about developing the social and cultural preferences to enable such a permanent culture, will survive while the other dies off.

The problem is the loss of cheap petroleum energy is a global issue, and will require global solutions, as will the problems of resource depletion, climate change, and over-population in general. And this is where the likes of Smil are actually equally destructive to the likes of Hanson, et al., because following the lead of the nihilists results in paralysis, while the cornucopians advocate the unsustainable status quo.

I’ve also pointed out in my other writings that both sides are necessary – we need the concerned cornucopians to develop the new technologies, just as we need the nihilists to goad society into continuous re-examination of our directions and practices. Good Cop, Bad Cop. The problem is the citizenry of the industrial nations, both older and the newly industrialised, are used to cheap and plentiful energy and have built their expectations and infrastructure around it. These expectations and infrastructure lead to the cultural and social decisions that reinforce those expectations and infrastructure, creating a feedback of reaction and brutality.

The other problem is this: Smil et al are focussed on too short a term, while the nihilists are demanding too short a term. The Cornucopians will come up with technologies to mask the problem, but the fundamentals of expectations and infrastructure will still become increasingly manifest. In the meantime, the cornucopians get to discredit the Nihilists, while the Nihilists become increasingly distressed at the blinkered vision of the Cornucopians. Eventually, it will come to a head, and given the fact that petroleum is a limited resource, and industrial civilisation is structured around it and the society and culture it has produced is also dependent on it, it is, again, disingenuous for the cornucopians to argue for continued expansion of the human project over the back of petroleum.

Therefore, from my perspective, the only rational position is a middle position, one wher ethe dire warnings of the Nihilists are heeded, but immense investment and work should be devoted to the necessary technologies to achieve a smooth transition to a post-carbon society.

It is the cultural and infrastructural character of that society that I believe will prove most critical to the future of civilisation. It is that “criticality” that gives the nihilist position its strength, but it is the optomistic resourcefulness of the technologists and thinkers often found among concerned cornucopians that will manage the transition, as a nihilist position is no better than an unconcerned cornucopian position.

I discuss a lot of these ideas (in fact, I’ll be publishing this post there) on my blog, which is listed as my website. Let me know what you think.

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Early Warning: Latest Posting. 23 May 06

Culture, Early Warning, Energy, Peak Oil, Theory

Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Latest posting…

I posted the following as a comment to another blog:

http://entropyproduction.blogspot.com/2006/05/peak-oil-taxonomy-doombat.html

Where Mr McLeod has fun at the expense of Doomers, calling them Doombats.

My response to his post follows.


I think it is appropriate that I should follow Mr. Mathews’s comments. I would like to add another category, or subcategory, actually. I see myself (generally) in the traditionalist camp, but I am more than anything a realist and agnostic on most issues of metaphysics. Doomers are not: they are True Believers.

What the Doomers do have on their side is a correspondence between their vision and linear prognostication, i.e., IF nothing is done to ameliorate the situation, THEN we’re all cooked.

Once you start introducing variables into the equation, such as the curmudgeonly nurtured technologies that you favour and then combine them with the social and cultural changes I tend to advocate, then the Doomer Argument fails to predict much of anything.

Mr Mathews (with whom I have been in a running argument for the past few years on the Energy Resources Yahoo List) is a dedicated Doomer. Still, a stopped watch is exactly correct at least once a day, and he can speak the truth, and I’ll quote him:

“All species, including the Homo sapiens, will ultimately suffer extinction.”

And right there is his prejudice laid out for all to see: all species must SUFFER extinction. What if there’s no suffering to extinction? What if we evolve ourselves into smarter, incredibly elegant, creatures with superior social and ethical instincts, and it is all handled (at first) by in vitro fertilisation and genetics, so we will literally give birth to homo futuris? How is that (outside of the specious detail of childbirth itself) a SUFFERING extinction in any sense of the word? Not that I expect such a technological solution to human extinction, but what it does show is how in one simple stroke, the Doombat attitudes of the likes of Mr Mathews are simply and completely blown away. And: such a genetic solution actually *could* happen.

Hence, defeating the Doomer Mythos is like dynamiting fish in a barrel – it’s too easy. I’ll quote myself from the Energy Resources List:

“(They) want to spread the end times gospel, like some ecological Jim Joneses. (They) want the drug of (Their) misery to prevail, (They so deeply desire) the addictive and explosive rush of horror one garners from gazing into the abyss to dominate the vision of others who are less inclined to gaze so deeply into the dark.

I too have spent many years looking into the abyss, probably longer than (most of these doomers) have, and I no longer see an abyss. The future is not a black hole. It is transformation. Not to something “better” – it doesn’t really work that way – just something more adapted to the environment that obtains. “

And to the Doomers themselves, I would pose the followling:

“Your moral and ethical charge (as a responsible human being) is to allieviate suffering wher eyou find it. If you find yourself drawn to the suffering itself, then go to the suffering. I urge you to sell your possessions and go to Darfur or Bangladesh or on a more local basis – New Orleans or East LA or Camden NJ. Work with suffering. Work with the horror, and find some meaning in your pampered whiny existence.”

Sometimes I get tired of battling Doombats, but the stakes are far too high. The struggle for a dignified survival for our species is becoming more attenuated with each passing year, and while this seemingly gives more credence to the Doombats, this attenuation will necessarily result in appropriate and reasonable decisions being made by caring and inventive people. We can do it, because we must, and with a combination of technologies (such as you would advocate) and shifts in social and cultural systems (that I would advocate) a reasonable and dignified future can be built.

I also keep a blog on this and related subjects here:

http://early-warning.blogspot. com

I’ll definitely link to yours – kindly reciprocate!

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Early Warning: Karsner’s Speech. 21 APR 06

Culture, Early Warning, Economics, Energy, Environment, Peak Oil, Policy, Politics

Friday, April 21, 2006
Karsner’s Speech

Assistant Secretary of Energy A. Karsner gave a speech that, in my humble estimation, shows just how lost the Bush Administration is – they’re talking out both sides of their mouths and have no credibility. This fellow was sent to talk to Powergen about renewable energy, something (with the exception of wind power) the Bush Admin has repeated cut funding for.

Arghh.

So, I respond to his speech point by point.

Keynote Address by Hon. Alexander Karsner, Asst. Secretary of Energy to Powergen Renewables

[snip quip and warm fuzzies]


It’s wonderful to be here with you in Las Vegas. My wife and I love Las Vegas, which is actually somewhat strange, because neither of us actually gamble, nor do we drink much. Still, it is unique in so many ways and uniquely American by birthright. Carved out of the waterless desert, it has evolved to become a neon, energy-intensive oasis tailored to leisure and whimsy and on-call, 24-7.

And it is one of the single least sustainable cities in the world. Las Vegas is a blight upon the planet.


(snip description of Death Valley and Las Vegas)

We are fortunate to have a very diverse group of friends who enjoy both environs. Yet, from time to time, we hear folks speak disdainfully of those who prefer the great outdoors to the urban nightlife or vice versa. Our view is that we cherish the very coexistence and diversity that this spectacular city and region represent–where some of the most creative works of man are married together with some of the grandest work of creation, because it is emblematic of Enjoying Life, thriving upon Liberty, and the opportunity to Pursue Happiness as one sees fit.

The problem is, Mr Karsner, the friends you know who enjoy the great outdoors and a night under the Milky Way aren’t squandering the resources of the greater southwest region. I do not see replicas of New York and Paris as spectacular or as one of the most creative works of man except in the most depraved way imaginable such a vision of
Las Vegas As Public Art makes the charlatanism of Jeff Koons look like the genius of Leonardo Da Vinci.


I have only held this post for a couple of weeks, and so mercifully, I am happy to report that I have yet to become a bureaucrat!

You can’t become what you already are.


Many of you know me and you know my background and my ambitions; it is similar to your own. My purpose today is to give voice to our mutual aspirations, to share some early perspective on the task ahead, and to explore how we might together make an impact on preserving for future generations those things we hold dearest; those things that are our birthright as Americans: Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

Sorry – that’s not in the constitution. The Constitution lists Life, Liberty, and Property. I learned that in 8th grade Civics. The pursuit of happiness is in the Declaration of Independence, which is not a legally binding document.


Perhaps we take these things for granted, perhaps we do not reflect on them enough.

I think about them daily, and I find them under assault NOT from without, but from within by the Bush Administration itself.


But as I parse the magnitude of our challenge, I am motivated by these principles and the bigger picture.

The facts are unpleasant realities:

We are a nation at war.

The war on terror is, by definition, bogus. It’s like a war on Daylight Strategic Bombing. Terror is a method of practicing
aggression. You can’t win a war on terror any more than you can win a war on kindergartners “hitting” each other, and, that said, the war on terror is one the Bush Administration has pretty much given up on prosecuting some time ago, Bush himself has said that he doesn’t put that much energy into trying to find and bring to justice Osama Bin Laden. So, your entire angle on “security” rings false and has no credibility.

We ARE at war, but it is in Iraq, and it was a war of choice – the Bush Administration, of which you are a part, LIED to everyone about the reasons for going to war, and then had the unmitigated temerity to bungle the whole job. Therefore, no quarter is granted to the Bush Administration for this. And for you, as a representative of this administration, to bleat “We’re at War”, is inadmissable, and doesn’t really carry any water any more. At all.


Our earth is warming.

Correct, for once. And that is a fact the Bush Administration has resisted coming around to facing FOR YEARS, wasting precious time. The Bush Administration continues to try to muzzle voices in the government who are trying to warn the public about this looming crisis. And it is also a fact that to end the human contribution to global warming, global agreements and co-ordination will be required, and it is precisely JUST SUCH agreements the Bush Junta has cheerfully ignored, defied, and circumvented since its installation by the Supreme Court in 2001. Again, the President and his circle of lackies, incompetents, cronies, and neocon fascists, have Zero Credibility in this regard, and you, as a representative of said Administration will have to do a LOT more than simply state the obvious to even hope to have a prayer of a chance of acquiring any credibility on the subject.


Carbon emissions and greenhouse gases are impacting air quality and the environment.

And AGAIN, the Bush Administration has continually resisted any legislation to up the mileage requirements on vehicles or reduce pollution at source. Again, you and the Administration you work for, have Zero Credibility.


America is addicted to oil.

And it is an addiction that the Bush Administration has continually exacerbated with idiotic regulations like subsidies for gas guzzling Hummers, and a continued antipathy toward extending and intensifying the CAFE standards.


And so, ironically, even as we find ourselves at the dawn of a new millennium, with numerous indicators of extraordinary economic growth,

Which is part of the problem, not the solution.


record low unemployment,

but with reduced income and wages for those Americans that are not part of the uppermost income brackets.


record home ownership,

combined with record debt and record low savings.


and record rates of productivity,

in a nation with no national health care, and with the least amount of vacation time in the industrialized world.


there remains a seething sense of anxiety in the land.

Geeee, I wonder WHY?


Personally, the unusually heightened sense of concern I felt when I watched those towers fall on that balmy day nearly five years ago has never fully gone away, and I see no sense in suppressing it now.

WTF does 9/11 have to do with any of this?


We are at war.

No, “We” are not. The Bush Administration invaded a comparatively defenceless dictatorship. This was a “war” of choice. The Bush Administration gave up hunting down Osama Bin Laden years ago, and he was the one who attacked us. There should have been a “war” against Al Qaeda, similar to the “war” against the Barbary Coast pirates. Instead, Bush et al invaded Afghanistan but failed to get bin Laden and then committed the USA to a bungled war in Iraq.


Fortunate though we are to live in a nation that can protect and insulate itself from the harshest realities of the battle,
it is not possible for me to grow up in a military family and not be constantly cognizant of our countrymen in harm’s way.

This particular war has been a part of my life for a long time, and I was in its path long before it came to our shores. It was with me in the lawlessness of Karachi, where a dialogue with utility officials might be suspended to find a new counterpart to replace the manager riddled with bullets. It was with me in Casablanca, when female employees would arrive with inexplicable bruising, and explain how I would not understand “because of culture.” And it is with me now, as I look
to my children nightly, and say to myself with determination that they shall inherit the American Dream that has touched us all, and that we owe them a plan for victory, a path to peace, and a better, healthier, and cleaner world.

The Moroccan and Pakistani and Muslim people I have known from all parts of the world are amongst the kindest and most hospitable people on earth. They too dream of peace and happiness for their families. But they live daily in apprehension and fear from well-funded, militant, and ignorant fundamentalism that dwells like a cancer in their midst.

WHAT? The Pakistani people labour under a fake republic that is run by a network of strongmen propped up by the government and security apparatus of the United States of America. Pakistan is the nation most responsible for the distribution of nuclear technology to countries least interested in using it in a responsible manner. In fact, A. Khan, the man RESPONSIBLE for selling nuclear technology was PARDONED by the very strongmen that the Bush Administration is backing.

Morroco? Morocco is a de jure constitutional monarchy, with a popularly-elected parliament. The King of Morocco, with vast executive powers, can dissolve government and deploy the military at will, among other amusing responsibilities. Opposition political parties are legal and several have arisen in recent years, but are largely ineffective against the rule of an autocratic KING. Illiteracy sits at 50% and among women it is closer to 90%. I hardly see Morocco as some paragon of democratic virtue or enlightened culture.


No one lives with these realities daily nor understands them more intimately than the President of the United States.

I sincerely doubt George Bush could find Morocco on a MAP with both hands, a flashlight, and a page full of hints and brightly coloured circles in North Africa, much less understand the realities of life as an illiterate testosterone poisoned meatheaded thug. On second thought, maybe he could…


It is of course a great personal honor for me and my family that he chose to select a renewable energy developer for this post, but have no doubt – it is a tribute to this great community of risk-takers, doers and dreamers, of which I am proud to be a member.

DUDE: face facts – you are window-dressing. You’re a distraction – you’re the waving hand of the prestidigitator keeping the air occupied while the other hand of the administration continues its insane and criminal behaviour of imperialism and kleptocracy.


Both the President and Secretary Bodman recognize that we cannot afford to divorce science from commerce; innovation from entrepreneurship.

But he has proven time and time again that he IS willing to divorce science from public policy, education, and common sense if it wins him political points with the delusional morons that constitute his base as “the religious right”.


Neither carefully crafted mandates, regulatory inducements, nor research alone can deliver to us the goals for which the Department of Energy was originally established.

But carefully crafted mandates, regulatory inducements, AND research CAN deliver the following:

1. An automobile fleet that gets, AT A MINIMUM, 60 miles per gallon, with existing technology.
2. Vast subsidies for the adoption of solar panels on private homes and wind turbines on farms.
3. Decentralization of energy production (see #2)
4. Develop an American designed/based/manufactured sustainable energy industry
5. Deincentivise reproduction – i.e., make it expensive to have children
6. Develop IFR nuclear reactors to rid the planet of nuclear power and nuclear fuel while generating electricity.
7. Make it illegal to drive a gas guzzling tank as a private passenger vehicle – there is no excuse for the Hummer.
8. Subsidise the hyperinsulation of homes.
9. Incentivise local organic agriculture and permaculture.

The list of what carefully crafted mandates, regulatory inducements, and research can deliver is long and intense. This kind of “Government Can’t Work” Attitude is typical of the Bush Administration who have done their very best to prove their point that government can’t work, by making sure it doesn’t. The depressing madness and disaster that surrounded the response to Hurricane Katrina and the ongoing fiasco in Iraq are just two of the more obvious proofs of my point.


As the legacy of great American energy pioneers like Franklin and Edison and Einstein would dictate, “Necessity is the Mother of Invention.” Combining scientific inquiry with commercial creativity remains the most powerful force for transformational change available to address the substantial needs with which we are confronted.

Ummmm, Einstein did all his important work in Germany. Otherwise, the point is a Cliché, followed by a recognition of the obvious.


The brilliant people with whom I am privileged to work beside at the Department of Energy know these urgent needs inspire my rallying cry to unite folks inside Washington and around the country; inside America, and around the world.

More flag waving balderdash.


We must take our clean energy technologies and replicate, proliferate, and accelerate. There is no time to waste and no time for small thinking. We know where these train tracks are heading and we know the destination we must reach. The only question is the rate of speed we are moving and what will be the ultimate cost of the ticket?

No, the question is MONEY. Who’s getting it, and how much.

According to here:

http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=23074

The FY06 budget request for the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE/RE) programs envisions reductions totaling nearly $50 million – an overall cut of roughly 4 percent. This includes a 6 percent cut in Distributed Energy programs ($60,416 to $56,629); an 8 percent cut in the Geothermal Energy program ($25,270 to $23,299); an 18 percent cut in the Biomass/Biofuels program ($88,099 to $72,164); and a 90 percent cut in the Hydropower program ($4,862 to $500).

In fact, the Bush budget proposes to phase out DOE’s hydropower program altogether and all support for the Advanced Hydropower Turbine, a joint program between DOE and the hydropower industry exploring fish-friendlier turbines, just at the time when full scale testing is about to begin at multiple locales.

Adding insult to injury for at least some of these programs, the cuts come on top of earlier reductions. The geothermal program, for example, had been funded at $28.4 million in FY03 and steadily reduced since then.

Less severely impacted is DOE’s solar R&D budget which faces a reduction of only 1.3 percent, from $85.07 million in FY 05 to $83.95 million in FY 06. The solar industry has sought to put a positive spin on its reduction calling the budget request “essentially status quo funding” while applauding a “promising new initiative to advance the development of crystalline silicon solar power.”

Overall, among DOE’s core renewable energy programs, only wind energy is proposed for an increase – 3.4 million (from $40.8 million to $44.2 million), a relatively large expansion of nearly 9 percent.

Which only goes to prove that in point of fact, the only renewable sector that saw improved funding was Wind, and this only serves to further demonstrate just how antipathic and hostile the Bush Junta is to Renewable Energy.


The way I see it, the people in this Hall are the locomotives of change and the role of government is to clear the way, get the rocks off the rails, and ensure maximum velocity. We have an obligation to steward both hardware AND policy.

And you’re NOT going to even be able to do THAT if you

A: continue to cut funding to renewable energy
B: spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year on a pointless war in Iraq
C: spend even more hundreds of billions of dollars propping up a global empire of military bases, CIA gulags, and client thug governments.
D: consistently and continuously reduce the tax burden of the wealthy.


Policy with predictability, transparency, longevity; policy conducive to capital formation that continuously cultivates market expansion of clean, green, domestic sources of power generation and fuels for transportation. All the while we must be relentless in attacking inefficiency and waste for its insidious and undermining impact on our national aspirations.

Inefficiency and WASTE? Coming from an administration that VOLUTARILY invaded Iraq and is now pissing away hundreds of billions of dollars on a nonsensical imperialist occupation? The Bush Administration is a complete disaster, and it has no credibility whatsoever. For the administration (and the Republican Party it runs) to prattle on about ineffiency and waste, all while building multimillion dollar bridges to nowhere and wasting billions of dollars a day on a foolish and horrible war in Iraq is the epitome of duplicitous double-dealing and hypocrisy.


We must do these things and more, at the fastest possible rate of market penetration, and government must be both realistic and relevant in it role. In short, we owe it to you, the leaders in the private markets, to update and redefine ourselves. We cannot perpetuate the delusion that government is leading the markets; nor should we distract ourselves with the unrealistic and ineffective ambitions of a command and control economy.

Government MUST lead the markets, because the markets are not structured to do the job. And while I am not a fan of Command/Control economy, during WW2 it DID propel the USA and the Soviet Unions into being the most powerful military nations ever seen. The USA abandoned direct command and control after WW2, and replaced it with a rapacious imperialist military/industrial complex, which was clearly such a vast improvement…


(snip rhetorical question)

It is our objective at the Department of Energy that we should increasingly become more agile, more attuned, more iterative and catalytic. In doing so, we can exert leadership that clearly seeks achievable goals, is unafraid to enter the fray, and continuously “moves the scrum” down the field.

Fine, then legalise and subsidise abortion everywhere for everyone. Subsidise birth control. Tax families with more than 2 children. Reduce or even ration consumption of energy and resources. Energy is’t “just Energy”. Energy consumption is part of the broader problem of overpopulation.


That is why I am proud to embrace Phase II, not merely as a milestone, but as a battle plan by which we can achieve great things together.

Again, not as long as the Bush Junta remains in power.


Maximizing energy efficiency and renewable energy IS the domestic epicenter in the War on Terror and it is imperative that we maximize the partnerships between the public and private sectors in new and creative ways with a sense of seriousness, national purpose and the urgency the situation merits.

Which means MONEY. Spending MONEY on the RIGHT STUFF. Spending money on an idiotic war in the middle east is spending money on the WRONG STUFF. Spending money on subsidizing rooftop solar panels and farm fields of wind turbines is spending money on the RIGHT STUFF.

The president and his cronies would rather line their pockets, and the pockets of their shareholders, by pissing away billions of borrowed dollars in Iraq. Your entire budget is a tiny fraction of what this war costs. In this world, importance is measured by dollars. Where the money goes is what is important. Your programs are not important to the Bush Administration. They do not feel you urgency, and never will.


(snip something not directed to me)

With 34 months to pursue the President’s Advanced Energy Initiative and implement the Energy Policy Act and make ourselves relevant and supportive to the forces of free enterprise, there is no time for systemic “business as usual.”

That is why last week, when I was in Detroit with the Secretary, he told the auto industry in no uncertain terms, “More needs to be done.” We need to have more flex fuel vehicles on the market of ALL vehicle types and classes and we need to have them available from all manufacturers who serve the US market. “We must continue to encourage the exponential expansion in the supply of ethanol available.”

Ethanol? WTF? How about 60 mpg diesel cars? How about an outright ban on private passenger vehicles over 4000lbs? Electric commuter vehicles? Expansion of telecommuting? Increased funding for public transport? Ethanol isn’t going to save us, or the car industry. Eliminating the need to drive is more important than what you drive, and what you drive is more important (for now) than what fuel it uses.


When the President of the United States personally visits a solar manufacturing facility to announce millions of dollars in increased funding aimed at changing “the way we power homes and lead our lives” you can be assured he understands you.

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! See the quote above which shows that he actually has REDUCED funding for critical research, and has only increased funding for wind power. If it wasn’t for the Danes and the Germans shaming him, he probably would have cut that too… And the energy that is produced in our petroleum society is being wasted on a pointless cycle of consumption – it’s Cheney’s “non-negotiable” American Lifestyle ITSELF that’s destroying the planet. And no amount of handwaving is going to change that.


When the President personally takes interest in the development cycle of battery storage for plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, he clearly seeks to inspire a bigger picture.

Then why does he CUT THE FUNDING for alternative energy research? HMMMM?


When President Bush declares that wind power could provide up to 20% of our national generation capacity, you can be certain his vision is both exciting and real.

We need it to do better than 20%. WAY better than 20%.


(snip blather and flag waving nonsense)

All this speech demonstrated is the delusional state of mind that inhabits the powers that be. NOTHING will get done in the USA until the Bush Junta is removed from office. Period.

We’re in a scary holding pattern. Much of the rest of the world is far ahead of us on all of these points – from localized farming to high technology wind power. The Bush Administration continues to fund military adventures over everything else, and if continued unabated, will only serve to bankrupt the US Treasury and scuttle the hopes and dreams of a nation.

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Early Warning: Chevy Tahoe Commercial. 02 APR 06

Culture, Early Warning, Energy, Media, Transportation

Monday, April 03, 2006
Chevy Tahoe Commercial – Culture Jamming Opportunity

Those are cool, but why leave culture jamming to the professional agitators, when you can do it at the request of corporate giants?

Here’s One I Made
(LINK IS NOW BROKEN – 22 FEB 09)

that’s a quick example of what I am talking about.

It seems the witless dinosaurs running the show over at Chevy haven’t been able to come up with any good ideas to sell their gas guzzling Stupid Useless Vehicles. So they are enlisting the General Public to make ads for them. you can enter a contest. I have no idea what the prize is (probably one of those stupid Tahoes) but the fun part is this:

1. They supply a bunch of video clips and music
2. You can put any text you want over the images

When you’re done, remember to email yourself the link to the movie, as if you’re letting a friend know how cool your Tahoe Commercial Is. As If.

Then pass the link around (I put mine through tinyurl.com for the sake of clarity…)

They see it as advertising, but it’s an open invitation to massive criticism, IMHO.

Make your own here:
(LINK IS NOW BROKEN – 22 FEB 09)

Chevy puts a sign on its back saying “PLEASE KICK ME”

What a bunch of idiots.

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Early Warning: $9 trillion in debt. 17 MAR06

Early Warning, Economics, Energy, News, Peak Oil

Friday, March 17, 2006
$9 trillion in debt

The USA.gov just voted itself te ability to go to $9 trillion dollars in debt.

The factoid as to how much this debt is per capita is pretty awful, but I have also read that $9 trillion dollars would build 28 Eiffel Towers made of solid gold. That could be cool.

For what it’s worth I figured something out that’s kind of interesting – how long it will take to pay back the debt, assuming the USA.gov is somehow suddenly able to turn $1 million a day “profit”. Now, the simple fact is that the Gov’t has RARELY been able to “turn a profit”, ever, but I won’t go there… So, let’s just pretend the USA.gov can actually pull a million dollars a day and use it to pay the debt.

First we take 9 trillion and we divide it by the million dollars.

that gives us 9 million days to pay it.

Then we divide the 9 million days by 365.25 (roughly the number of days in a year) and we get how many years it will take to pay back $9 trillion dollars in debt at the rate of $1 million dollars a day:

24,640.657 years.

Yes, 24,640.657 years.

Bascially, right around the next glaciation.

It ain’t gettin paid back. Ever. I think we need to get that point out loud and clear:

Hello! China? Japan? South Korea? Great Britain? Hello? Guess what you guys: we’re going to stiff you. You’re not going to see a DIME of that money. Not now, not ever.

Sorry.

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Early Warning: PO nihilism sux. 14 MAR 06

Culture, Early Warning, Energy, Peak Oil

Tuesday, March 14, 2006
PO nihilism sux

Well, I was in SF for Spring Break with wife and child. We had a wonderful time – I miss them both so much. then I flew back to NJ this past Sunday to find my car inoperant. Which is something expected and prepared for with a jumper battery thing. Which worked. Then I put it in the trunk, and drove to work. That evening, the car didn’t start. The battery jumper thing didn’t have the spizzzz to crank the car, so I called AAA and got a jump. I am SICK of this nonsense, so I drove it to a repair shop, and Mr RepairMan will sort its electrical hash and I will no longer have to deal with this nonsense.

This evening I am having dinner with a fellow professor here at Urban University, so I have something pleasurable to look forward to. Gah.

Now, not to make my life more miserable, I am, as usual in constant battle with Peak Oil Nihilists. The odd thing is, frequently people complain that I’m too much of gloomer. I think people who believe that need to get out more often. That said, I do see the value in the nihilist argument, for if nothing is done to gracefully depopulate the planet of people to a sustainable level, nad if nothing is done to curb te production of greenhouse gases, the species will face a catastrophic die-off.

I do believe things are being done – not enough – but it’s a start. I think that we’re enough along the way that once we do understand ourselves to be in Peak, we won’t see people running around like a pack of idiots in panic. But some people seem to think that “once we peak, all hell breaks loose, run for the hills, etc.” And I am constantly finding myself at odds withh such people, as they share a similar mindset to a particular strand of American Apocalypticalism that rears up every few years. Not that ALL such notions of the Apocalyse are equally valid or invalid. The notion predicting that Jesus will come from the sky and judge the planet I find far less credible than the notion that we will all be incinerated in a nuclear war. The idea that the entire species will find itself in depraved daily battles over scraps of food the day after oil peaks I think is about as likely as Jesus coming down to judge the planet. This doesn’t mean that I believe we will NEVER be in such a state, I just find it extremely unlikely.

Sadly, a number of people disagree with me, and one such fellow savaged another person on one of my energy lists. I defended said person and the results follow:


Satellite space stations in geosynchronous orbits beamed electrical energy that tells me (X) in NE (Y) did write:


I have one question Fred, if you don’t believe in PO, why are you wasting your time in this group.

I am one of the last to give credence to “energy fairy” stories, but frankly your position is so wrong, it’s not even wrong, and I see it as a kind of 21st century millennialism.

First off, I don’t Believe In PO. Yep – you heard it here first. Stuart Studebaker Does Not Believe In Peak Oil. Why? Because I don’t believe in facts. I UNDERSTAND FACTS. Belief has nothing to do with it, and when someone tells me “You gotta believe” I know I’m being decieved.

And this is the crux of the matter, and it is a continual theme here on ROE2 and ER and a bunch of other places:

Does the point where oil production peaks *necessarily* mean the instantaneous collapse of civilisation? Some people hole up in the hills and say “Yep. We’re all gonna die.” I humbly submit that you are completely incorrect.

This does NOT mean that everything is going to be George Jetson Peachy Keen. Far From It, actually.

What it does mean is that I think it is ***extremely unlikely*** that come 2012 we will have teeming hoards of violent assholes roaming the countryside shooting families for a box of Cheerios.

If you think that is true, then, That’s Your Problem. Just get used to having me call you on it every time you pass it off as some kind of obvious truism, because -

a: it ain’t
b: it shouldn’t
c: it might, but ain’t likely

Should people prepare? Yeah, you betcha. But prepare for WHAT? Madmax idiot infantile masturbatory fantasies of instant hell, or a century long decline to 1850?

Personally, I see the long decline in the cards, and the only thing that would stop it is something like fusion or CFR or some other equally powerful collection of technologies, in which case, we’re looking at 1850 in 500 years or later.

To help create a long decline vs. the fast crash, is for people to continue Doing What We Are Doing : getting the word out, and helping sell and produce the sustainable society.

To mix some metaphors, you can’t beat thermodynamics, but you can move the goal post… It’s kind of like “Artificial Intelligence”. The obvious truth is: Machines can’t, won’t, and will never think. Period. But: we can dumb down the notion of what constitutes “thought” to the point where we think “Machines Can Think.” It’s like the “interactive website”. There is NOTHING interactive about it – it is simply a user accessing a logic tree. People are more interactive on antiquated “email lists” than any of us will ever be coaxing feeble data out of a Flash movie.

Same thing for the post-carbon society. Right now we (as a society) look at big McMansions and SUVs as the Ne Plus Ultra of comfort and utility. We come home, turn on all the incandescents in the house, crank the heat to 75, nuke some PeopleChow ™ and plop in front of a giant CRT to watch “entertainment”.

Well,

rather than promote a room for each pet, we could look to smaller homes and promote “cozy” and “home”. The car could be an LEV (Like a Twike) and the home would be close to work, so public transport or walking would be best. And that would be seen as “the Ne Plus Ultra” luxury. And those clunky old incandescents? Feh! I’ve got the swanky LEDs! And for mood lighting, nothing sexier than a candle or two. And the heat? If thhe house is hyper-insulated, heating becomes much less of a problem. And giant TV? What for? I have a projector – bigger image, less power. But what about “my shows”? Only for idiots. The Cool Thing is to be entertained by the stuff coming over the fibre optic cable, which is made of sand, not metal…

The above description is not “Real” – it’s more illustrational, so don’t take it as a straw man. What I am pointing at as Real is to USE the system to Better Ends. With conservatives (like Roscoe Bartlett, Matt Simmons, et al) on one side and the tree huggers and liberals (Like Udall and Gore et al) on the other, this is definitely a do-able deal. Not easy, but do-able. So rather than sit and snipe sourness upon the world, work together to save it…

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Early Warning: A Syriana Moment 28 FEB 06

Culture, Early Warning, Media, My Life, Peak Oil

Tuesday, February 28, 2006
A Syriana Moment

Last week my wife, our daughter, and I went to visit the George Washington Museum in Morristown, NJ. The Museum itself was closed due to construction, but the mansion where he lived was open, and it was a very instructive and insightful display as to how people lived before petroleum. It was only a few generations after the Revolution that oil was discovered in Pennsylvania, and America was drop kicked directly front and centre into the Petroleum Age. I would argue that the age of the American Empire is almost directly coincidental to that resource. While it is true that the european invasion of North America was a rapacious disaster for the locals – starting with a mass death from smallpox, and culminating in death camps and forced migrations – that particular brand of murder and imperialism was largely limited to the North American continent, and the American Ruling Elite hadn’t yet dreamt of the global hegemony it now enjoys.

The addition of oil to the mix is what made America’s global empire possible, as it directly leapfrogged the coal powered weed of the British Empire. This leapfrogging was aided, in no small part, by the tiny brained tribal battles of Europe’s idiotic fratricidal warfare. And before this oil fueled leapfrogging, the European immigrants lived rather dire lives in America, and the Morristown settlement was no exception. The houses were, for the most part, small hovels centered around a hearth. In Morristown, the largest house was the one that was Washington’s HQ for the winter there. Even by today’s standards, it was a large house, but we had driven through endless acres of McMansions that were larger. The winter Washington spent in Morristown made Valley Forge look like a picnic. Valley Forge had breaks in the cold – the winter in Morristown was one of the coldest ever on record.

The ground in Morristown is similar to much of that part of the country – thin soil on top of a hilly rocky base – not very good for farming. The winters are cold and snow is common. The Summers are hot and filled with mosquitos. Not an optimal location. Today, many thousands of people call it home, as they bask in their centrally heated and air-conditioned homes, many of which are much larger than the mansion Washington called home, and most of them much larger than the hovels the peasants lived in at the time of Washington.

During the winter, sometimes parts of the big house were left unused as they were too hard to heat. Note: this is how Washington, a member of the ruling class, lived. The servants who lived there were crowded into a few small rooms with low ceilings.

There was a book for children in the heated trailer next to the house. It talked about how different the life of a child was in the 18th century. At the age of 12, children were given adult responsibilities, and girls were often married off a few years later. Schooling was limited to the barest necessities of reading, writing, and simple arithmetic. Books were rare and expensive. The evening meal was the largest and it took much of the day to cook. People worked, all the time. Knitting was a continuous occupation, as was the carding and spinning of yarn. In fact, people would load up a spinning wheel on a horse just to go visit a friend. Women would often get together and spin thread as a social occassion.

Due to the local soil conditions, farming was hard and continuous. Because houses didn’t have the luxury of fibreglas insulation, and houses were built without precision saws and tools, homes were often drafty affairs with low ceilings and small windows. Trees were cleared quickly, to make way for farms and to be used as wood. Thanks to replanting and the advent of petroleum, there are as many trees in New Jersey now than at any time since the arrival of Europeans – in fact, by 1900, much of NJ was clear-cut rolling hills of farm land. I walked back to the mansion and stood in the upper hallway looking out over the Museum grounds, and that’s when I had a Syriana Moment.

I was thinking of the Matt Damon character talking to the prince of Syriana:

“You want to know what we think of you? We think that 100 years ago you people were living in tents and chopping each other’s heads off, and we think that’s exactly where you’re going to be in another hundred years.”

I looked out the window at the parking lot full of SUVs and minivans. I looked in the sky at the contrails of jets flying off to distant parts of the globe. I looked at the rocky eaten soil, and the spare grey trees. I thought that General Washington probably looked out that same window at similar trees – shivering thin midwinter sticks – and that he gazed at a similar broken land. Where the asphalt parking lot now sits filled with gas guzzling wagons of heated suburban comfort, was probably a collection of meagre frozen tents full of enlisted men and disease, huddled together against the cold.

And then I thought:

“You want to know what I think of you? I think 200 years ago you people were scratching out a miserable existence on this crappy rocky soil, and that’s exactly where you’re going to be in another 200 years.”

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Early Warning: Spreading the Word. 18 FEB 06

Culture, Early Warning, Energy, My Life

Saturday, February 18, 2006
Spreading the Word

Friday was an interesting day. I teach an illustration design class (basically, Photoshop 101) on Fridays, and I prepared a packet for them to read. It consisted of Roscoe Bartlett’s talk before Congress on the Peak Oil issue, Duncan’s infamous “Olduvai Theory” paper, and a few other shorter works, including one by yours truly. The reading became increasingly less doomer/fatalistic, as I wanted the students to be left with a sense that hard times are ahead, but they need not end in catastrophe.

They were stunned. The reaction was “Why hasn’t ANYONE TOLD US???”, which I read as “Why isn’t this on CNN, ALL THE TIME???” One girl looked like she was going to cry. I felt bad, but I did forewarn them: this is TOUGH STUFF. You Will Be Depressed.

Luckily one girl, who is several years older than the rest in the class and is Cuban, had some good things to say – she explained that when it all went to hell in a handbasket in the 1990s in Cuba, at first, life was VERY tough. But after a while people adjusted and learned how to live on less. One thing she said that I thought was really important was this:

“After a while – you think about other things. The situation stabilises, and you learn to cope and find a way to be happy. Life goes on.”

She was able to emigrate to the USA, and she is in contact with her extended family back in Cuba. She has nothing good to say about the Castro regime itself, but she does miss having health care and free education. With what I showed her regarding Peak Oil, she feels she has already lived through a Peak Oil de-powering process, and she is sad that it seems she will have to go through another one.

She also said that many people in Havana (who could afford it) left the city and started small farms and ranches in the countryside. This opened up some room in the city, and almost instantly gardens began to flourish. However, she also said that if you dumped vegetables in the back yard, they’d sprout and grow due to the temperature and climate in Cuba. She has no idea how the Big City Near Us can possibly cope in a rapid depowering scenario.

That’s where I piped in, saying that it is imperative that we – all of us – work together to prevent a rapid depowering, how it is important that we all work together to help the human race transition to the next phase in civilisation, and to get there with grace and dignity.

I also pointed out to them that the thing that cuts at contemporary Civilisation the most is not losing gasoline, but fertiliser and metals. The oil pissed away on transport is actually fairly elastic, and I showed them examples of electric cars, electric assist tricycles, and a variety of other transportation alternatives – and this is where we can make the most changes that would have the most immediate and beneficial effect.

We talked about population control, and the necessity of having children – just having FAR FEWER of them. That became rather complex and heated, so I stipulated that we would discuss it again another day, and went on to a different, if related, topic – food production. The Cuban girl had much to say on that (which makes sense if you know her. I really like her – she’s very smart and very talented – but dang… she DOES talk an awful lot…) and soon class was almost over and the assignment was given:

Illustrate a post carbon society.
Doom and death? Clean and mean? Smaller and Sweeter? Wetter and Better? Whatever – JUST CONVINCE ME. DO NOT COMPROMISE. I gave them the physical parameters of the work.

They left looking like they had just been sentenced to life in prison. I went to lunch with some of them, and we had a long discussion on the subject. The general mood was “OK, well, let’s get on with it.” Which I found inspiring, and it makes me think that the Doomer Scenario may never come to pass – people can work together and we can make this happen.

“Yeah – it’s brutal. you’re gonna be really pissed and depressed for a while. But you’ll get over it, and you’ll have a better idea of what to do. You won’t be sad forever. It’s better to know this so you can work on it now, than to go skipping along with your fingers in your ear, pretending like it doesn’t matter.”

I hope to put some of the images they come up with on this blog.

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